Updated — Jon Lester: Not Your Average Major Leaguer.

In a well-documented contract year, Jon Lester is putting together his best season in his seventh full MLB season

 

Back in late January when Red Sox ace lefty Jon Lester expressed his desire to take a hometown discount to remain in Boston, many bought into his words and rejoiced.  I wrote about it here:  https://scottjronsports.wordpress.com/2014/01/24/jon-lester-not-your-average-major-leaguer/

 

At the time it seemed like a given that the Red Sox brass would jump at the opportunity to lock him up as quickly as possible.  Their pitcher stated, “These guys are my number one priority… I understand to stay here, you’re not going to get a free agent deal. You’re not going to do it.  It’s not possible.  You’re bidding against one team.  I understand you’re going to take a discount to stay,”  Lester told reporters at the annual Baseball Writers of America awards ceremony dinner.

“Do I want to do that?  Absolutely.  But just like they (the Red Sox) want it to be fair for them, I want it to be fair for me and my family.  If we can get to something in spring training, that would be awesome…”  All quotes are courtesy of the Boston Globe.

 

 

As I wrote then, Lester was going above and beyond what 95-97% of any other MLB players would do by saying those words.  His only (very simple) request was to get something done before the season began.  If not, he told reporters that he would prefer it be put off until after the season so it would not be a distraction to the team.

 

Now in late July, approaching the non-waiver July 31st trade deadline, Lester has done anything but let his impending free agency become a distraction.  Despite a borderline slap-in-the-face 4 year, $70 million offer, Lester has been more dominant in 2014 than in any other regular season.

 

 

 

In 20 starts he has compiled a 2.50 ERA (3rd in the American League), 1.14 WHIP (career best), 142 strikeouts (top-10 in MLB) to just 31 walks (a career best 4.6 K/BB, 2. 0 per 9 innings).  He has surrendered only 8 home runs in 137 innings pitched.  His success earned him his third American League All-Star selection, the first time since 2011.  After 8 shutout innings and a win against the Kansas City Royals, Lester has surrendered 2 earned runs or less in a remarkable 14 of 20 starts.

 

This does not completely demonstrate exactly how dominant he has been in 2014. 

 

How can anyone say that? Consider this:  Lester has had two poor starts all year (5/22 vs. Toronto, 6/7 @ Detroit) in which he allowed 22 hits, 12 earned runs, 3 walks, 3 strikeouts and 5 home runs across 10 1/3 innings pitched.  Yes, of course those starts are still there.  However, the larger  sample size of his other 18 starts demonstrate exactly how dominant the 30 year-old impending free agent has been for an offensively starved Red Sox team.

 

In those 18 starts, Lester has thrown 125 1/3 innings, allowed 100 hits, 26 earned runs, 139 K’s to 28 walks, while allowing only 3 home runs.  That equates to a 1.86 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9.98 K’s per 9 innings, 2.0 BB/9, 7.1 H/9, 0.2 HR/9.

 

 

 

In a year where Felix Hernandez and Chris Sale are not pitching to their own career bests, Lester is probably your leading candidate for the American League Cy-Young Award with roughly ten weeks left in the regular season.  His 10-7 record does not tell the story:  his offense has given him only 3.35 runs of support per start.  Only 11 MLB starting pitchers have received less run support.  Despite that, it is overwhelmingly likely that he finishes 2014 with his sixth 15+ win season out of seven as a full time starter.

 

When writing about his contract negotiations in late January (here: https://scottjronsports.wordpress.com/2014/01/24/jon-lester-not-your-average-major-leaguer/), I made the comparison to Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels’ contract of 6 years, $144 million, which he signed at age 28 in July 2012.  Those comparisons ended up dead on after the Boston media began comparing Lester’s career statistics to Hamels’ prior to the All-Star break.  Even more ironically, national pundits reported the Red Sox were scouting Hamels.  After this season, the 2008 World Series MVP for Philadelphia will be due 4 years, $90 million on the contract he signed in 2012.

 

The unsuccessful free agent contracts of both Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford before the 2011 season caused a shift in the front office philosophy of the team.  Since those failed signings and their subsequent departure in the biggest salary dump Major League Baseball has ever seen, the Boston front office has committed not to pay over 5 years for players.  Often this has meant paying a large average annual value in order to get the player signed.

 

At age 30 Lester is looking for his only long term, big money contract over the course of his career.  The safe assumption is, since he wants to remain in Boston for his career, that he probably wants a 6 year deal.  He may even settle on a 5 year contract, but he undoubtedly no longer will accept a hometown discount.

 

Earlier in the season more than one report came out about other players being upset about the initial offer that Lester received.  Much to his credit (and to no one’s surprise), the prized pitcher has handled the situation perfectly.  He has answered every question without making it about himself.  He has gone out to the mound, and given the team his absolute best, with consistently excellent efforts through the first three and a half months of the season.

 

Durability is never in doubt with him either.  In a baseball era where torn ulnar collateral elbow ligaments have resulted in so many Tommy John surgeries it’s been deemed an “epidemic,” Lester has proven to be among the most durable starting pitchers in baseball.  He’s well on his way to 32 or 33 starts, a number he’s hit in five of his first six seasons (with 31 in the other).  He’s thrown at least 200 innings in five of the last six seasons.  He has only been to the 15-day Disabled List one time in his career, missing two starts in 2011 with a minor lat tweak.

 

Essentially there is zero doubt that Lester has greatly increased his value this season.  Now more than ever, there is a real possibility that Boston will lose their best pitcher.

 

There is no real argument, the Red Sox must swallow their pride to keep him.  With Philadelphia recently deeming that Hamels is not available for trade, it would cost Boston at least a trio of very good prospects to pry him away from the Phillies.  With so many young pitchers on the way to the big league club in the next 1-3 years, who better to mentor them than Lester?  With the way he’s pitched this season (and while Hamels missed the first month with a shoulder issue), the realization that they cannot afford to lose their 2002 2nd-round pick has come full circle to Boston GM Ben Cherington and President Larry Lucchino.

 

With so many young pitching prospects on their way up, it only makes sense that Lester is the guy who can teach them the most about being a successful big league starter.  The last thing the Red Sox should be trying to do is cheap out on a guy who has been integral in two World Series Championships, particularly in 2013.  They undoubtedly know that they made a huge error in judgment this spring, and the ball is now firmly in the burly hurler’s court.

 

 

 

 

Lester has said that he does not like change, that this is the place he wants to be.  That is the one mistake he has made in this entire drawn out process.  Yes, it is the best thing any fan of the team and player could hope for him to say.  However, he initially took all of the leverage away from himself.  He knew that at the time for sure.

 

After the borderline ridiculous/nearly insulting proposal, added to the fact he has pitched lights-out baseball, he has unquestionably regained that leverage and then some.

 

At this point, on July 20th, it appears as though his patience and resistance to change will continue to be heavily tested.

 

What is now clear to observers, and Red Sox Nation alike, is that the team owes this one to Jon Lester.  They need to come to him with their tails between their legs, admit they wronged him with the first offer, and give him what he’s earned over the course of his career.

 

 

 

 

 

The hometown discount that he was talking about?  It appears all but certain that is no longer an option for the Boston Red Sox.

Jon Lester: Not Your Average Major Leaguer

SP Jon Lester has helped lead the Boston Red Sox to two World Series Championships in the past seven seasons. 

When Jon Lester arrived onto the scene in 2005 for the Boston Red Sox, scouts raved endlessly about his potential as a starting pitcher.  He struggled with his command for much of that season as a rookie in the major leagues, but his talent was inherently apparent.

Then, a cancer diagnosis.  On September 3, 2006, Lester was diagnosed with Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma, a treatable yet of course dangerous form of cancer.

By 2007, Lester had come full circle.  He returned to the mound on July 23rd of that year, throwing six innings of two-run ball in a win over the Cleveland Indians.  By that October he was rounding into the pitcher the scouts expected him to become, hurling five and two-thirds shutout innings in the deciding fourth game of the 2007 World Series.

The following season, on May 19, 2008, Lester hurled a no-hitter against the Kansas City Royals.

Over his eight full MLB regular seasons, he’s compiled a 100-56 record, with a 3.76 ERA,  10 complete games, three shutouts.  He’s allowed less than a hit per inning in six of his eight campaigns, and struck out more than a batter per inning in two of his seasons (2009 and 2010).  He’s also a two-time All-Star, and finished fourth in Cy Young Award voting following the 2010 season.

In the postseason Lester has been even better, and nothing short of dominant.

In 76 and two-thirds postseason innings, Lester has allowed only 59 hits, 18 earned runs, with a 7.9 strikeouts-per-9 innings ratio.  His earned run average sits at just 2.11 during the most important time of the baseball season.

In the 2013 postseason he was even better: a 4-1 record, a 1.55 ERA in 34.2 IP (innings pitched), and only five extra-base hits (doubles, triples and home runs) in five starts.  Many baseball pundits and “experts” alike noted that, “(Lester) is earning himself quite a bit of money with these performances.”

After the season, the Red Sox exercised a $13 million team option to keep him under contract for one more season.  When you consider the enormous contract Dodgers left-handed starter Clayton Kershaw just received (7-years/$215 million), most would have to agree those writers will probably be right.  Of course, Kershaw is a demonstrably better pitcher than Lester with two Cy Young Awards to his credit, but the amount of workhorse, consistent left-handed starters are a certain rare commodity in the MLB.

Last night at the Boston chapter’s annual Baseball Writers’ Association of America awards dinner, Lester showed why he’s no ordinary ballplayer in perhaps the biggest way yet.  All of the following quotes come courtesy of the Boston Globe.

“These guys are my number one priority,” Lester said “I understand to stay here, you’re not going to get a free agent deal. You’re not going to do it.  It’s not possible.  You’re bidding against one team.  I understand you’re going to take a discount to stay,”  quipped the 30 year-old lefty from Tacoma, Washington.

“Do I want to do that?  Absolutely.  But just like they (the Red Sox) want it to be fair for them, I want it to be fair for me and my family.  If we can get to something in spring training, that would be awesome…  I want to win.  If that means taking a Pedroia deal where you stay here for less money to be happy and be competitive and win every year, let’s do it.  Let’s get it done,” Lester continued.

He references the 8-year/$110 million deal that Dustin Pedroia signed with the Red Sox in the middle stages of last year.  Pedroia is represented by the Levinson brothers, the same agents who represent Lester.

“I enjoy it.  My family loves it here,”  he said “When it all comes down to it, we want to be here.”

If the two sides could not reach an agreement before the season officially begins on March 31st, the burly starting pitcher prefers to put off negotiations until after the season.

“That way, everybody’s relaxed and everybody is in the same place and then when the season starts you don’t have to worry about it and just focus on baseball.   Hopefully we can do that one way or the other.  I would like to, if we don’t get something done, try to put it off as long as we can to not make it a distraction.”

Red Sox fans:  this is exactly why you have to love Jon Lester.  How many other ballplayers can you honestly name besides he and Pedroia that would openly accept a discount to stay in one place?  Certainly not Robinson Cano, he of the massive 10-year/$240 million deal with the Seattle Mariners earlier this off-season.  It was always a central thought that he would be staying on with the Yankees, yet he ran to the west coast for an extra some-odd million dollars.  While nobody would blame Cano, he unquestionably sacrificed an opportunity to win for a paycheck.

The question is:  how much money should Lester make?  (Given the market landscape of baseball, of course)  For a fair comparison, there’s another left-handed starter over in the National League that draws as a pretty comparable one to the Red Sox starter.  Philadelphia Phillies lefty Cole Hamels.

During the 2012 season, the Phillies signed Hamels to a 6-year/$144 million extension thru the 2018 season (with a $20 million team option for the 2019 season).  At the time, Hamels was 28, a full two years younger than Lester is now.  However, their bodies of work in the major leagues are very similar.  By the end of that 2012 season, Hamels’ record sat at 91-60, his ERA at 3.34 and his K-per-9 rate at 8.5.  He had compiled just a third of an inning more than Lester over the same span (seven seasons) in just nine fewer starts.  The result was what many considered to be an overpaid contract graded against Hamels’ performance:  one that averages out to $24 million per season.  The argument can be made that had Hamels pitched in the American League, as Lester has, instead of the National league where the pitcher hits, that his numbers would literally mirror Lester’s.

As the discussions go on about what the Red Sox should attempt to sign Lester for, you can be sure that Hamels’ contract will be mentioned frequently.  Perhaps, even C.C. Sabathia’s will be as well.  Sabathia signed what was the richest contract ever for a lefty (before Kershaw’s) with the New York Yankees for 7-years/$161 million before the 2009 season.

Red Sox fans can rest assured that Lester probably will not require quite that much money.  They can also rest assured that, in all likelihood, their staff ace probably will not be going anywhere for this season or the next five to six.  Even though Boston’s most recent philosophy has been to sign free agents to shorter contracts with higher annual value, Lester has come up through the Red Sox organization.

Our prediction:  look for Lester to leave some money on the table, signing for around 6-years and $120 million.  The deal will be completed before the Red Sox open their season on March 31st at Baltimore. 

Loss of Defenseman Dennis Seidenberg Greatly Impacting Boston Bruins

Boston inked D Dennis Seidenberg to a 4-year, $16 million extension on October 3, 2013. 

First of all, I want to personally welcome all to the new blog.  I will keep this preamble short and concise.  It is my hope to be able to cover a broad spectrum of the professional sports scene, both locally in Boston and on a national level.  My goal is to provide you with hard-biting, thought-provoking information, along with objective opinion.  I will also do my very best not to drag these postings to absurd lengths.  If you like what you read, or even if you don’t, please encourage all the sports fans in your life to check it out.  I will also be posting links to podcasts (coming soon) here on the blog as well.  So, without further adieu…

 

This article will take a detailed dive into the recent struggles of the Boston Bruins normally strong penalty kill.  More specifically, a look at the impact that the loss of defenseman Dennis Seidenberg has had on the team.

 

If you haven’t been paying close attention this season, let me fill in the blanks quickly:  the Boston Bruins still currently sit tied atop the Atlantic Division standings in the NHL’s Eastern Conference with 60 points.  They trail only the Pittsburgh Penguins, who have 68 points, in conference standings.  Perhaps, you may be thinking:  ho hum, another consistent effort from the Bruins this season.

 

However, beneath the surface a decent amount of trouble appears to be brewing in recent weeks.

 

Late in the 3rd period of a home game with the Ottawa Senators on December 26th, the Bruins lost their second-leading defenseman in time-on-ice in Dennis Seidenberg.  Making a play behind his own net, Seidenberg’s right leg was inadvertently fallen on by Ottawa centerman Cory Conacher. Writhing in obvious pain, Seidenberg lifted himself off the ice after a few seconds, and slowly skated back to the Boston bench without putting weight on the injured leg. Within a few hours of their game the following day, on the road against the same Senators team, the Bruins received the worst possible news regarding their second leading player in minutes per game.  Seidenberg suffered a torn Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) and a torn Medial Collateral Ligament (MCL) in the collision with Conacher.  As with all injuries of this severity, Seidenberg’s season ended abruptly.

 

Seidenberg also missed a four game stretch in late November with a lower-body injury.  In total, he has now missed 12 of the 46 contests played by the Bruins in the 2013-2014 season.  He has missed eight consecutive games since the ACL and MCL tears on December 26th.  In those matches, the Bruins have compiled a substandard 3-5-0 record.  They have surrendered 25 goals in the eight game span, an average of 3.1 per game.

 

While the Bruins appear to be operating as normal at even strength (five versus five), their normally outstanding penalty kill has taken a disturbingly dramatic dip over the three-week span dating back to No. 44’s injury.

 

For someone who’s a big proponent of statistical analysis, it’s easy for me to admit that not all hockey statistics are completely telling (such as the plus/minus rating system).  However, the following numbers show the truly profound effect the absence of the 11th-year blueliner has had on the organization.

First:  Boston is 24-9-1 (.727 winning %) with Seidenberg in their lineup; but only 5-6-1 (.417%) without him. 

 

Well, perhaps 12 games isn’t a large enough sample size.  After all, it’s only 14.8% of the season total.  Fair enough.

 

In the 34 games played with Dennis Seidenberg in their lineup, Boston’s penalty killing unit was successful on 99 of 114 opponent power play attempts. That’s a success rate of 86.8%.  Seidenberg was (and is still) third among Bruins defensemen in short handed time-on-ice per game at 2 minutes, 24 seconds per contest. 

 

Okay, you say to yourself, “He’s only third among the defensemen in penalty kill time per game, what’s the big deal?” It is true that he did not see as much time as captain Zdeno Chara (3:12 per game before the injury) or lumberjack Johnny Boychuk (2:48 per game before the injury) on the all-important penalty kill.

 

In the 12 games played without Dennis Seidenberg in their lineup, Boston’s penalty killing unit has only been successful on 26 of 37 opponent power play attempts.  That’s a success rate of just 70.2%.  That number would be, by far, the worst in the NHL. 

In the eight games since the injury, it’s even worse:  opponents have scored nine goals on 28 power play chances.  Other teams are succeeding on the “Big Bad” Bruins defense over 32% of the time in this most recent stretch. 

 

Admittedly, those are relatively small sample sizes to gauge off of when talking about an entire season.  There is one other way to display it, though…

 

11 of the 26 power play goals surrendered by Boston over their first 46 games of the season have come in the 12 games when Dennis Seidenberg has not been in the lineup.  That means:  42% of the goals allowed by the penalty kill have happened in the 26% of games not featuring the German born Jason Statham look-alike. 

 

Therefore, yes:  his impact is most definitely profound. It’s not only showing up in the penalty killing numbers, though, much to the chagrin of Boston’s brass & fan base.

• Bruins opponents tallied 63 goals in 34 games with Seidenberg (1.8 per); they’ve scored 39 in 12 games without (3.3 per).
• They have a -9 goal differential (30 to 39) without him in the lineup; they were +39 (102 to 63) with him in the lineup.

 

Most coaches, as well as players will downplay the loss of one cog in a 20-piece machine.  Once the severity of the injury was known, Bruins coach Claude Julien did not mince words.

 

“It’s unfortunate because he’s always been one of our better Ds,” said Julien “He always seems to step his game up at playoff time. That part, you’re definitely going to miss.”

 

The lead man behind the Boston bench could not have hit the nail on the head more directly.

 

While he purposely would split them up to add blue line depth during the regular season, Julien always paired Seidenberg with all-world 6′ 9″ behemoth Zdeno Chara.  In the three postseasons when Seidenberg has been on the Bruins roster, he has averaged 3 minutes and 6 seconds of short-handed time-on-ice per game.  That number (barely) trails Chara, and it’s far ahead of the remaining blueliners that have been on the roster.  The pairing of Chara and Seidenberg routinely gave fits to some of the top forwards in the entire league during two runs to the Stanley Cup finals in a three-year span.  Clearly, there was no combination that instilled more trust from their coach than these two players.

 

The bottom line is:  this injury cannot be replaced by one player, or the organizational depth so heavily praised immediately following in the wake of the torn knee ligaments.

 

The Bruins have tried to do so:  four of their defenders have seen a significant increase in time-on-ice during the crucial penalty kill situation.  Matt Bartkowski, who was barely seeing the lineup early in the season, has seen his PK time go from 1:12 to 1:47 per game.  A thirty-five second uptick.  Adam McQuaid, punishing as he can be, was never seen as a great penalty killer by Julien.  His time has increased from 1:49 to 2:04 since the injury to Seidenberg.  Johnny Boychuk was already second on the team (2:48 per game) among the defensemen in short-handed time-on-ice.  He has seen that total increase by 14 seconds to 3:02 per contest.  Finally, already at a whopping 3:12 each game, even Zdeno Chara has seen his ice time increase by six seconds per game without Seidenberg.

 

In short, while Boston’s front office may be publicly pleased by their organizational depth at the blue line, there have been enough signs that the impact of one piece to the puzzle can be very great.  With each call up from the AHL affiliate Providence Bruins doing noticeably well when inserted into the lineup, bells must be ringing in the ears of management.  Moves like the one on March 3, 2010, which plucked Seidenberg and Bartkowski from the Florida Panthers, have proven to pay dividends in the past for Boston.  Roughly 15-months after that trade (which featured two players not currently at the NHL level being cast away), Seidenberg played an instrumental role in returning the Stanley Cup to Boston after 39 years without a title.

 

The calendar is creeping towards the March 5th NHL trading deadline.  Only 48 days stand between now and that all important afternoon.

 

Boston General Manager Peter Chiarelli, you are officially on the clock.