New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium will be the first cold weather venue to host an outdoor Super Bowl.
Full disclosure: We acknowledge that weather is going to factor into this game. However, this article WILL NOT feature a full fledged, detailed weather report. Sorry.
The two week wait is almost over, and the biggest game of the professional football season is nearly among us. Super Bowl XLVIII featuring the National Football Conference champion Seattle Seahawks (13-3) and the American Football Conference champion Denver Broncos (13-3) is now just over 24 hours away. With each Super Bowl you can almost always count on a few things: a great game, good commercials (for once all year), lots of betting, strange halftime shows, and a bizarre twist. This article will delve into most of these topics. We will leave the gambling section of it to the experts in Las Vegas, where assuredly millions upon millions of dollars will switch hands pending the final score.
For those wondering, the Broncos are still holding steady as two point favorites. If you forgot to make your last minute bets, we’ll be here when you get back.
The Venue
Super Bowl XLVIII will be the first of its kind in that it will be held in a cold weather outdoor stadium. MetLife Stadium, home to both the New York Jets and New York Giants, was opened in April 2010. It seats to a capacity of 82,566 fans, who according to cbssports.com, will pay an average of $2,646 to attend the game in person. As of this hour, game time temperatures are expected to begin in the low 40s, falling through the 30s as the game progresses. Wind chills will, at times, be in the upper 20s. Winds are not expected to gust over 15 mph. Not a full fledged weather report, though many fans will surely be disappointed about the lack of precipitation in this first ever cold weather Super Bowl.
Since both teams will be traveling far from the west, it is difficult to gauge precisely which fan base will show up to represent their team the most. Our best prediction tells us the Seahawks fans will travel a bit better, since the state of Colorado has recently incurred some extracurricular expenses that could surely make a large travel check seem that much larger. Feel free to draw your own conclusion from that statement.
Now, a breakdown of the game played on the field.
OFFENSE
If you have not been paying much attention to the media hype surrounding this game for the entire sum of the past two weeks, we cannot blame you at all for doing so. However in, “the match up that everybody wanted,” this Super Bowl will feature the top ranked offense in Denver versus the top ranked defense in Seattle.
More specifically, Denver ranked first in points with 606 (37.9 per game), yards with 7,317 from scrimmage (457.3 per game), yards per pass attempt (7.8), passing yards (5,444), and passing touchdowns (55). Denver quarterback Peyton Manning broke the individual records for passing yards and touchdowns with the final two statistics. Their running attack was not quite as good, though it was obviously not asked to do very much heavy lifting. They still had the 11th most rushing attempts (461), 15th most yards (1,873), 7th most touchdowns (23), but were just 20th of the 32 teams in yards per attempt at 4.1. The Broncos also had 26 total turnovers on offense (10 interceptions, 16 lost fumbles), slightly into the lower half of the league in that category.
Seattle were certainly no slouches on the offensive side of the ball themselves. They managed to rank 8th in the NFL in total points (417), and only had the 4th fewest amount of turnovers with 19 (9 interceptions, 10 lost fumbles). Despite being next to last in passing attempts, quarterback Russell Wilson managed to throw the 10th most TD passes (27) and 3rd fewest amount of interceptions (9) while averaging the 6th highest yards per pass attempt in the league at a healthy 7.0. Seattle’s running attack was the bread-and-butter of their offense: they had the 2nd most attempts (509), 4th most yards (2,188), 12th best yards per carry average with 4.3, and the 13th most touchdowns with 14.
With the number one defense in the NFL it meant that the Seahawks could rely less on their offense, running a total of 207 fewer plays than did the Broncos. Of course, the era in which the National Football League now sits is very much akin to the “steroid era” in Major League Baseball. The rules regarding what the defensive players are allowed to do in terms of tackling and pass coverage have truly softened to all time levels in the past few seasons. The softening of these rules can largely be blamed on the “newly discovered” awareness of concussions across all levels of football, but more likely because of the resulting lawsuits the league has encountered from former players which stem from those findings. This has led many players, former and current, to criticize the current state of the game. Perhaps the most notable quote of the 2013-2014 season came from San Francisco 49ers linebacker Navarro Bowman, who after being flagged for a “roughing the passer” call in a game that cost his team critically in an eventual loss to the New Orleans Saints, called the game “BS… watered down football.”
The point being: what Seattle’s defensive unit was able to accomplish in this day and age of professional football is nothing short of remarkable.
DEFENSE
As mentioned previously, Seattle ranked first on this side of the football for the regular season. Though that rank is only determined on total points allowed (231, just 14.5 per game), they also ranked first in: yards allowed (4,378), total turnovers (39; 28 interceptions, 11 fumble recoveries), pass yards allowed (2,752), interceptions (28), yards per average attempt against (4.8), and rushing touchdowns against (only four in 16 games). They ranked second in passing touchdowns against (just 16), seventh in rush yards against (1,626), 10th in yards per rushing attempt against (3.9) and 11th in total forced fumbles with 11, as mentioned earlier.
Combining their 18 regular season and playoff games, Seattle’s defense only allowed three opponents to score over 20 points against them. 25 of the 32 NFL franchises managed to average 20 points or better per game. Again: Seattle’s defense is very good.
However, Denver has proven recently that they themselves are no slouches on the defensive side of the ball. While their ranks are not at all impressive: 22nd in points allowed (399), 19th in yards (5,696), 16th in forced turnovers (26), 27th in pass yards against (4,070), 21st in passing touchdowns against (29), 12th in interceptions (17), 17th in yards per attempt against (6.2), 23rd in rushing touchdowns allowed (15), and 21st in fumble recoveries (9). They did show plenty of consistency against the run, though, tying Seattle’s defense for 7th in yards allowed (1,626) and for 10th in yards per attempt (3.9).
As you will see in the next section Denver’s defense has chosen the correct time to come together, and get hot going into the biggest game of their careers.
ROAD TO THE SUPER BOWL
Super Bowl XLVIII features the top seeded team from each conference for the first time since 2009, but for just the second time in the last twenty years. Both squads finished the regular season with a 13-3 record, securing first round bye weeks, and winning two home games to advance to New Jersey.
Denver
Denver won its two playoff games without the same offensive flash of the regular season, but still quite convincingly in both cases. First, they seemingly dominated the sixth seeded San Diego Chargers until their inter-division foes attempted a very late comeback against them. The Broncos led that game 17-0 going into the final quarter of play. San Diego finally got on the board with a 16 yard touchdown pass from QB Philip Rivers to wide receiver Keenan Allen with 13:03 remaining. Denver answered with a 4 minute, 44 second touchdown drive of their own, going back up by 17 with the score now 24-7. San Diego moved into their no huddle offense on the following possession, which resulted in yet another 16 yard touchdown strike from Rivers to Allen. Down by ten points with only 5:49 remaining in the game, San Diego went for one of the most unlikely plays — the onside kick — and managed to recover it. Once again going no huddle, they managed to get down to the Denver 12 yard line and make a 30 yard field goal to get it to within 7, the score now 24-17.
Figuring lightning could not possibly strike twice, the Chargers kicked the ball deep and forced Denver to start at their own 27. They still had two of their three time outs remaining. With 3:53 remaining in the game, Denver took over. A false start penalty by lineman Zane Beadles forced Denver back 5 yards, then a draw play from the shotgun on the next play resulted in a two yard loss. The 2nd-and-17 play from Peyton Manning to WR DeMaryius Thomas fell incomplete. The next play, 3rd-and-17, was easily the season defining play for the Chargers. Denver chose not to play it conservatively, and Peyton Manning did not fold in the clutch as he had so many times in the past. This time he connected with Thomas on a 15-yard out pattern towards the right sideline, and the wide receiver managed to pick up six more yards to net the first down. San Diego was forced to burn their time outs, and they could not stop Denver from there after clearly being gassed. Their defense had spent more than half of the game on the field in the thin Mile High air to that point. Denver eventually won by that same score, 24-17.
Denver managed 363 yards on offense during the game: 230 through the air, 133 on the ground. Their defense put in a dominating effort. That unit only allowed 259 total yards in the game (194 passing, 65 rushing). However, San Diego put up 160 yards of offense in the short felled comeback attempt of the fourth quarter. That meant that Denver shut them down completely through three quarters, only allowing 99 total yards.
Their victory over the New England Patriots was even more impressive. Much of the national media hype throughout the week centered on the two quarterbacks: Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. It was the 15th time those two had met head-to-head. Despite Brady’s teams getting the better of Manning’s in 10 of the previous 14, a win in this game for the Broncos meant the two future first ballot hall of fame players would have the same amount of playoff wins against one another in four match ups.
The affair was largely a one sided one between the AFC East division champion Patriots and the AFC West division champion Broncos. New England’s much hyped running attack only managed 64 yards on 16 attempts. They only put up three points through the first three quarters, trailing Denver 23-3 going into the final quarter. Despite mounting a late charge — a seven-yard touchdown pass from Brady to WR Julian Edelman, as well as a five-yard touchdown run by Brady — a failed two point conversion attempt with under three minutes to go sealed the season fate of the Patriots. An early game injury to Pro Bowl cornerback Aqib Talib put their already over-matched defense into dire straits. They only managed to force Denver to punt once, and it was with 9:30 to play in the first quarter. Peyton Manning had perhaps the best playoff performance of his entire career completing 32 of 43 pass attempts for 400 yards and two touchdowns. He did not miss any of his reads, and his throws were on target all game long.
Denver rolled up 507 yards of total offense on New England: 400 through the air and 107 on the ground. The final score of 26-16 put Denver back in the Super Bowl for the first time since hall-of-fame-former-quarterback-turned-owner John Elway played his final game in Super Bowl XXXIII some 15 seasons earlier.
Seattle
Seattle’s vaunted defense, at least by the total yardage numbers, appeared to have taken a step back on the surface in their two playoff victories on the way to their first Super Bowl appearance since 2005.
First, they faced a rematch with a New Orleans Saints team that they steamrolled by a 34-7 score just six weeks earlier. That game was never remotely close. Throughout much of the Divisional Playoff round it was largely the same result for New Orleans, though the score was much closer and the game had a different feel. Seattle led by the score of 16-0 going into the final quarter. New Orleans had been mounting a long drive since the late stages of the third, resulting in a one yard touchdown run by RB Khiry Robinson with 13:14 remaining. RB Mark Ingram successfully converted the two point attempt to put New Orleans within eight points. Seattle’s conservative game plan saw them pick up one first down on the following possession, running the ball on a 3rd-and-10, and eventually punting the ball back to New Orleans. The Saints could not take advantage though, punting the ball back to the Seahawks with 7:18 to go in the game.
Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch carried twice for eight yards, and a third down throw by QB Russell Wilson was batted down by New Orleans defensive back Keenan Lewis. Seattle again punted the football, and New Orleans took over on their own 28 yard line with 5:31 to go in the game. After a holding penalty on each side, they had the ball at their own 23 when QB Drew Brees hit WR Robert Meachem on a long bomb up the left seam for a pick up of 52 yards. Following their second time out with 4:04 remaining, Brees missed two short throws to the right side. Then, newly signed placekicker Shayne Graham missed a 48 yard field goal attempt. Seattle’s offense followed up the untimely miss with two plays in the clutch to ultimately seal the game. Wilson hit WR Doug Baldwin up the left side for a 24 yard pickup, a play that was reviewed and upheld. On the very next play, bruising RB Marshawn Lynch (also known as “beast mode”) did something akin to what he did to the Saints three years earlier on the same field. He broke off a 31 yard run for a touchdown, putting Seattle up 23-8 after the extra point. Only 2 minutes, 48 seconds were left on the clock at that point.
New Orleans marched down the field in a somewhat brisk fashion, eventually seeing Brees hit WR Marques Colston for a 9-yard touchdown with just 32 seconds to go. They went for an onside kick themselves, and they like San Diego recovered it. However with only 26 seconds left and one time out, they could not mount one more touchdown drive to tie it up. Seattle won by the score of 23-15. The Seahawks only managed 277 total yards (103 passing, 174 rushing) while giving up 409 (301 passing, 108 rushing). They played a conservative style on their home field, running it nearly twice as much as they threw it (35 to 18). The 409 yards allowed were the second most all season by Seattle, but New Orleans got 177 of them in the fourth quarter playing catch up down by multiple touchdowns.
Seattle’s next test came in the form of their hated division rival San Francisco 49ers, a team they split the season series with at a game a piece. This one had a heated feeling to it throughout. San Francisco led throughout much of the football game, going into the fourth quarter with a 17-13 lead. The final period of play started with a 3rd-and-22 for the Seahawks, who were struggling to gain any traction on offense throughout the contest. That play resulted in a completion to tight end Zach Miller from Wilson for a gain of 15. It set up a 4th-and-7 from the San Francisco 35 yard line. Seattle lined up for a 53 yard field goal attempt, but could not do so in time and was forced to burn their first time out. Coming out of the time out, something that appeared very peculiar on the surface was happening. Seattle had their offense back out on the field, they were going to go for it in a spot where a field goal or a punt seemed like a much smarter idea. What happened next was a perfect midair strike from QB Wilson to WR Jermaine Kearse, threading the needle between to San Francisco defenders for a 35 yard touchdown. Truly one of the most spectacular plays of the entire NFL season had the Seahawks out in front for the first time, 20-17 after the extra point with 13:52 remaining in play.
From there, Seattle’s defense took the game over. After moving it 23 yards in roughly three minutes, 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick was strip sacked and fumbled the ball back over to Seattle, it was recovered by LB Michael Bennett for a 17 yard return. While that appeared to seal the fate of the 49ers season, Wilson would fumble the ball back to them on the goal line. San Francisco had new life with 8:29 remaining in regulation. That vanished quickly, however, as Kaepernick turned the ball over again. This time on an interception going for a deep throw to WR Anquan Boldin. Now with 7:37 to go, Seattle only moved it 11 yards but chewed up nearly four minutes of game clock. A 47 yard field goal try by K Steven Hauschka was good, and the Seahawks now led by 6. That meant there was still plenty of time for San Francisco to mount a go-ahead touchdown drive.
Starting at their own 22 yard line with 3:32 to go, the 49ers marched up the field, only using one of their three time outs remaining with 55 seconds left as they moved it 54 yards. With only 35 seconds to go the ball sat on the Seattle 18 yard line, Kaepernick heaved a pass into the end zone looking for WR Michael Crabtree. The ball was tipped by All-Pro CB Richard Sherman, picked off by LB Malcolm Smith, and sealing Seattle’s trip to the Super Bowl. Of course, Sherman’s much maligned “choking” taunt and subsequent rant followed after the game concluded. You can find the analysis of that fiasco in many, many other places online.
Seattle totaled 308 yards of offense (193 passing, 115 rushing) and allowed the same amount (147 passing, 161 rushing). The three fourth quarter turnovers forced by their defense obviously changed the entire complexion of the game. The result was the two teams that many “experts” believed would meet in the Super Bowl before the season even began.
THE BIG GAME: WHO HAS THE EDGE?
When Denver has the ball…
Look for Seattle’s stout defense to use a model similar to what the New England Patriots did during their regular season victory over the Broncos. In that game the New England coaching staff devised a defensive scheme centered around showing Peyton Manning a “two-high shell” look throughout the game. This strategy was expounded upon by Patriots CB Aqib Talib following that game. All quotes courtesy of csnne.com.
“Peyton’s a smart quarterback, man,” said Talib after the Patriots won, 34-31. “We knew we were going to come out and show that two-high shell. He sees that two-high shell, he’s going to run the ball. That was our plan, to get him to run it more than he throws it.”
For as much as Manning loves to throw the football, he will change his preset play into a running play if the defense shows him the appropriate coverage. In that game he only threw for 132 yards in frigid temperatures, but the Broncos rolled up 280 yards on the ground. Of course it’s more than likely that Manning heard those comments, and it will be harder to get him to bite the bait in the same scenario moving forward.
With that in mind, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is highly regarding as one of the greatest defensive coaches in the history of the NFL. Players that have played for both he and Patriots head coach Bill Belichick have repeatedly said Carrol is either just as good, or a better defensive mind than the man once dubbed “a defensive genius.” Look for Seattle’s physical defensive backs to bump and jam the Broncos receiving corps at the line of scrimmage, where those actions are still legal. Additionally, you can all but guarantee the Super Bowl will feature less penalty flags than most any game of the entire season. No football official wants to be scapegoated for a disastrous penalty call on the game’s grandest stage. The end result should be a physical brand of football, which will play into the hands of Seattle’s defense.
With Manning frustrated early on in the passing game, expect the Broncos to lean heavily on RB’s Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball. They should have relative success in doing so, as the Seahawks are only slightly above average against the run as mentioned. They define the characteristic of “bend, but don’t break” as a defense against the run, as they only allowed four touchdowns on the ground all season.
When the ball is in the air the key match up will be Seattle All-Pro CB Richard Sherman squaring off with Denver WR DeMaryius Thomas. Sherman has been talking a big game for the better part of the last two weeks, and a lot of the chatter has been self centered. Our prediction: Sherman will try to jump a route and pay for it, getting burned for a big play by Thomas for a touchdown at a critical point during the game.
For the Broncos it will all depend on how much they are able to open up the passing game by using the run early on. The old mantra of “defense wins championships” is one that’s rapidly dying out in today’s NFL. Even though it appears the match up favors Seattle’s defense when Denver has the ball, look for them to find consistent success as the game moves into the second half.
When Seattle has the ball…
Earlier on we highlighted Seattle’s reliance on the run: they ran it nearly a hundred times more than they threw it during the regular season. If they choose to play the same way this Sunday it will be right into the hands of Denver’s improving defense.
For all of the praise he receives for being a great defensive mind, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll does not have a track record of success in big games. This is his first Super Bowl appearance as the head man, and the two previous Seahawk games leading up to this one reflect a basic conservative coaching style. Despite having so much confidence in the lead man, QB Russell Wilson, Seattle ran the ball 64 times against only 43 pass attempts in their two playoff victories. It is definitely difficult to argue for messing with success, but Denver is a top-10 ranked defense against the run. In order to score points the NFC champions will have to throw the football more often than they have all season.
When they are forced out of their normal element, expect Seattle to make some mistakes. It is not always appropriate to make out anything of media attention, but the difference in how the two teams are acting approaching the game is fairly noticeable. Most notably in the case of Richard Sherman, Seattle definitely appears to be the looser team. Sherman has generated plenty of smack talk, even commenting that Peyton Manning “throws ducks” during media day. His teammates have followed suit. The ‘Hawks are also led by a very vocal-yet-relaxed head coach in Carroll, who always expresses the utmost confidence in his bunch. Undoubtedly the Seahawks are feeling less pressure than the Broncos, you can bet that this will lead to some undisciplined unforced errors during the game.
COACHING
As we just mentioned, Seattle head man Pete Carroll does not have a huge track record of success in important games. He’s also leading a loose, possibly entitled bunch into what could easily be the only time all of his players reach the Super Bowl. Seattle has the look of a cocky, entitled team, and it will be Carroll’s job to reel them in before the 6:30 pm kickoff on Sunday night.
By contrast, Denver head coach John Fox has already been to a Super Bowl back in February 2004. If anybody understands why the opportunity should not be taken for granted, Fox is definitely that person. His Carolina Panthers team played in one of the best Super Bowls in history, falling just short of the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XXXVIII by a 32-29 score. Fox also collapsed on a golf course earlier this season and needed to have a heart procedure much sooner than he anticipated. Having been ten years removed from his last appearance, the head coach definitely understands the opportunity at stake. As a result, his team appears to be the more focused of the two heading into this year’s contest. From the coaching aspect we have to believe Denver will have a slight edge based on past experience and demeanor.
THE TWIST?
Now more than ever, the media coverage of the National Football League focuses more on an individual versus another individual than any other team sport. This holds true in only the past few years especially, but often much of this focus is pitted on the quarterback position. The game of football is comprised of 53-man rosters, and each week it takes so many more than that just to put a team in a position to succeed. This preface is a bit of a disclaimer for the prediction of our twist.
Peyton Manning, truly one of the best ever to play the game, only holds an 11-11 career record in playoff contests. Coming into this postseason his teams had sustained a first game loss in 8 of their 12 appearances in the playoffs. Before this postseason the man dubbed by some as “by far the best quarterback ever to play football” had an under .500 winning percentage in the playoffs. It is semi-common knowledge that despite all of his regular season successes, Manning’s one championship ring compared to Tom Brady’s three (to a lesser extent, his younger brother’s two) is something that still keeps his wheels spinning with every passing year.
One of the biggest knocks on Manning, at least before 2006, was “he chokes in the clutch” and “cannot win the big game.” Even though he broke through with a victory over the Chicago Bears seven years ago, he still came under criticism because the opposing team’s quarterback was Rex Grossman. Three years later, Manning threw an interception returned for a touchdown that sealed his Indianapolis Colts a loss in Super Bowl XLIV.
The twist in this year’s game, you ask?
Peyton Manning will come up big in the waning moments of the game. He’s heard all of the criticism, he’s got the team around him to do it, and the weather in East Rutherford will not be any worse than a November home game in Denver. With his team trailing he will lead only his second career postseason comeback ever. Rather than a late game interception it is a late game touchdown strike by Manning that sends Denver to their first championship in 15 years.
Our prediction: Seattle 23 @ Denver 27
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