After an impressive flurry of action through the first two weeks of the 2014 Olympic Winter Games, only four teams remain in the quest for this year’s Gold Medal.
Three of the four teams seemed like shoe-ins to arrive at this point: Canada, Sweden, and the United States.
The one surprise: Finland. Carried by superb goaltending in their quarterfinal match up with host Russia, they stunned the powerhouse team with a 3-1 victory in Wednesday’s contest. Rask of the NHL’s Boston Bruins made 37 saves on 38 shots.
The following is a quick look at each team’s road to the semifinals, as well as what you can expect to happen in the final four.
Road to the Final Four: Sweden
The Swedish national team opened its Olympic play in what was expected to be a tightly contested match with the Czech Republic. However, they combined their relative youth, speed, and timely stops by goaltender Henrik Lundqvist to control much of the contest.
Halfway through the first period, they opened scoring with a slapshot from the right point by Ottawa Senators Defenseman Erik Karlsson who got it past the glove side of Czech goalie Jakub Kovar. The shot was aided by Detroit Red Wings forward and teammate Daniel Alfredsson, who was set up in front of the net screening Kovar’s view. Just three minutes later, Patrik Berglund of the NHL’s St. Louis Blues would add onto the lead on a beautiful feed by teammate Oliver Ekman-Larsson, defenseman for the NHL’s Phoenix Coyotes.
Up 2-0 after one period of play, the Swedes would not waste time as Captain Henrik Zetterberg (also of the NHL’s Red Wings) got one past Kovar with assists from Gabriel Landeskog (Colorado Avalanche, NHL) and Red Wings teammate Niklas Kronwall just 51 seconds into the 2nd. Just over three minutes later, Karlsson would add another goal — this one on the power play — and Sweden never looked back. Despite two unanswered goals from the Czechs in the second, Sweden remained in control winning 4-2.
In game number two of their preliminary round action, Sweden faced a stiff challenge from heavy underdogs Switzerland. The Swiss national team only carried eight NHL players, as opposed to 24 out of 25 for the Swedes. However, Switzerland proved that it’s not always about the size of the dog in the fight, but about the heart inside the dog. They out-shot Sweden by a 13 to 5 margin in a scoreless first period. Then, they withstood heavy pressure as the Swedish team found its rhythm with 17 shots on goal in the second period. The game was still tied headed into the third period at 0-0.
With 7:41 remaining in regulation, it was Daniel Alfredsson from Berglund and Karlsson getting the first goal of the game. It would turn out to be the only goal, as Henrik Lundqvist turned aside all 26 shots put up by Switzerland in his third career Olympic shutout.
In their third and final game of opening group play, Sweden was again a heavy favorite, this time versus the team from Latvia. It was without question that Latvia would be hungry, they were searching for their first Olympic victory in twelve years.
The Latvians threw everything including the kitchen sink at the Swedes, keeping them off the board until Patrik Berglund got one by goaltender Kristers Gudlevskis with 4:10 to go in the opening period of play. It came on the power play, with assists by Erik Karlsson and Alexander Steen (St. Louis Blues, NHL). Latvia would respond with a surge, tying it up with an even strength goal from Lauris Darzins with 1:12 to go in the first.
With the game tied 1-1 after one, things would get chippy in the second period. Fourteen penalty minutes would result in seven power play opportunities (four for Latvia, three for Sweden) during the period. Latvia would be the first to capitalize on it’s man advantage with Janis Sprukts (Lokomotiv Yaroslavi, Russia) scoring only 1:22 into the middle period. This gave Latvia its first lead of the 2014 Winter Olympics. However, it would not last for long as Erik Karlsson would score only 1:23 after the goal from Sprukts. Karlsson’s third goal of the Sochi games came on the heels of assists from Nicklas Backstrom (Washington Capitals, NHL) and Daniel Alfredsson. His tally was also on the power play, all three of his goals to that point had come with a man advantage. The score would remain tied at 2 a piece, until more power play action added to the goal totals.
Alfredsson got involved once again as he got one past Gudlevskis (Syracuse Crunch, AHL, Tampa Bay Lightning affiliate), with 3:46 to go in the second to make it 3-2 in favor of Sweden. Roughly two-and-a-half minutes later, Jimmie Ericsson (Skelleftea AIK, Sweden) would get his first tally of the Olympics to make it a two goal lead. All four of Sweden’s goals to that point had come courtesy of the power play, Latvia did an excellent job of creating pressure at even strength throughout this game.
Down 2-4 with one period left, Latvia would pull to within one on a power play goal from Zemgus Girgensons (Buffalo Sabres, NHL) at 1:28 to inject life back into their squad. The six combined power play goals between the two clubs tied an Olympic record set back in 1980. Unfortunately for Latvia, it was clear that they had expound a great deal of energy to hang with the Swedes to that point. A beautiful wrist shot by defenseman Alexander Edler (Vancouver Canucks, NHL) beat Gudlevskis high on the stick side with 7:40 to go in the game. The 5-3 lead proved insurmountable for Latvia, and Sweden held on to go 3-0 in preliminary round action with 9 points.
Their quarterfinals match pitted them against a Slovakian team featuring 14 NHL players, but that had only managed to go 0-2-1 in their group match ups against Russia, Slovenia, and the United States. Sweden thoroughly dominated play, winning 5-0 and becoming the first team in the tournament to secure a spot in the semifinals. They would face the winner of the quarterfinals match between Finland and Olympic hosts Russia.
Road to the Final Four: Finland
Coming into the Sochi games, many experts appeared to look off the Finnish national team. However, some (yours truly being one) saw them as dark horse candidates to medal as they had assembled perhaps the finest goaltending in all of the tournament. Among three superb candidates, Finland turned to Boston Bruins netminder Tuukka Rask to lead their team into the quest for the gold. Rask is third among NHL goalies with at least 30 starts in goals against average at 2.11, and tied for fourth among all NHL goaltenders with a .928 save percentage.
As alluded to above, Finland would play in a quarterfinals match with home team Russia for a chance to move into the final four. Two things could surely be counted on by the Fins as they prepared for their opponent: Russia had all of the pressure on them, and they would do everything in their power not to disappoint on their country’s ice.
In front of a sellout crowd of 11,564 in Sochi, Russia came out firing in the win-or-go-home match. They put up 13 shots in the first period to Finland’s 9. One of those 13, a power play tally by former NHL’er Ilya Kovalchuk (SKA St. Petersburg, KHL), would put the Russians on the board first at 7:51 into play.
Finland would respond quickly, tying it only 1:37 later on a goal from Juhamatti Aaltonen (Karpat Oulu, Finland) at 9:18 in the first. Rask would shut down the Russians from there on out. Teemu Selanne (Anaheim Ducks, NHL), playing in his fourth Olympics for Finland, would put them up 2-1 with under 3 minutes to play in the first. Despite getting 38 shots on goal, Russia could not find the back of the net again. Finland got another goal on the power play at 5:37 in the second from Mikael Granlund (Minnesota Wild, NHL), holding on to win by the 3-1 score despite only registering 22 shots on goal.
Prior to the quarterfinal match with Russia, Finland displayed plenty of firepower in the preliminary round group contests. They combined to outscore Austria and Norway by a 14-5 margin in their first two group matches, both decisive victories. Then, they played right down to the wire with the Canadian team at a goal apiece through three periods. Despite being outshot nearly 2 to 1, they gave Canada everything they could handle. Eventually, though, Canada would get their second goal of the game from Drew Doughty (LA Kings, NHL) with an assist from NHL teammate Jeff Carter just over halfway through the overtime period. Finland ended up 2-0-1 in group play, setting them up with the aforementioned game against Russia.
Thanks to 78 saves on 85 shots by Rask, as well as 20 of 21 by fellow goaltender Kari Lehtonen against the Norwegians, Finland now stands a win away from a shot at the gold medal.
Road to the Final Four: The United States of America
The gold medal contest against Canada in the 2010 Winter Olympics was one that undoubtedly sparked a new breed of interest in the sport of hockey across the United States. Despite losing that game 2 to 1 in overtime, the United States played an excellent game, part of what is widely regarded as one of the best Olympic contests of all time. The Americans surely entered the 2014 Olympics with the memories of Vancouver weighing heavily on their minds. With that substantial chip on their shoulder, as well as a plethora of talent in the wings, many expected the USA to compete for the gold medal.
In the preliminary group stages of this year’s tournament, the red, white & blue definitely showed they were a force. First, they dominated Slovakia in a 7 to 1 drubbing in their first game. The USA had six different goal scorers: John Carlson (Washington Capitals, NHL), Ryan Kesler (Vancouver Canucks, NHL), Paul Stasny (Colorado Avalanche, NHL), David Backes (St. Louis Blues, NHL), Phil Kessel (Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL), and Dustin Brown (LA Kings, NHL). The Americans had 11 different players score at least one point in the convincing performance.
In their second game, the United States would take part in perhaps the most dramatic hockey game of the 2014 Winter Olympics to this point. Their opponent was none other than their rival of 34 years earlier, nobody on the current roster had even been born when the Miracle on Ice occurred back in the 1980 games. Even though that game took place over three decades prior, both teams played with an intensity of the most bitter rivals in any sport.
Despite 23 total shots and one power play apiece, the teams finished the first period with no score on the board. Tension began to mount among the 11,678 attending the game in Sochi. Without question at least 99% of the fans watching in person were rooting for the host squad of Russia. Their team would provide the first spark, as Captain Pavel Datsyuk (Detroit Red Wings, NHL) would open scoring at 10:45 remaining in the second period. The center for the NHL’s Detroit Red Wings had recently returned from a lower-body injury, and was playing heavy minutes for his home country despite still clearly being hampered by the ailment. His first goal of the Olympics came courtesy of assists from Andrei Markov (Montreal Canadiens, NHL) and Alexander Radulov (CSKA Moscow, KHL).
The team facing the least amount of pressure in this one would respond to that goal like something shot out of a cannon.
It took their third power play attempt of the contest, but the United States would finally break through with 3:26 remaining in the second period. With only 43 seconds remaining on that power play, Anaheim Ducks defenseman Cam Fowler was able to bury a one-timer high over the glove side of Russian goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky from just beyond the goaltender crease. Bobrovsky had no chance on the play as it was set up beautifully on a cross-ice pass from the boards near the left side slot by Toronto Maple Leafs forward James Van Riemsdyk. The game would remain tied by those tallies heading into the final period of regulation play.
Bobrovsky and United States goaltender Jonathan Quick (LA Kings, NHL) would provide the highlights for the first half of the third period making plenty of great stops on quality scoring chances by the opposing attackers. The third goal of the game would not come until 10:33 remaining in the game when Joe Pavelski (San Jose Sharks, NHL) buried home a one timer stick-side high past Bobrovsky on a ridiculous cross ice feed by Chicago Blackhawks forward Patrick Kane. Now up 2-1, the Americans appeared to be in control for the next three minutes of the game. However, a kneeing penalty by forward Dustin Brown at 12:26 would put the Russians on the man advantage.
The host country did not wait very long to make the most of their opportunity. Just 18 seconds into the power play it was Captain Datsyuk playing hero once again on a feed from Markov. Aided by a screen in front of USA goalie Jonathan Quick, Datsyuk was able to slip the wristshot just under Quick’s left leg pad to tie it up for Russia.
Tied at two, Russia appeared to put themselves out in front just a few minutes later. A blazing slapshot from the left point by Fedor Tyutin (Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL) beat Quick over his right shoulder, just sneaking in under the crossbar and finding the back of the net. The Sochi crowd instantly became deafening with joy as their team appeared to be roughly three minutes away from a dramatic victory. However, replays from the camera installed in the net behind Quick showed the goal had been unintentionally dislodged from its moorings just before the goal took place. In international play, this forces the referees to disallow any goal scored when the goal is displaced. Regardless of the rules, the United States clearly caught a big break here. While it was not at all an unfair ruling, the net was so minutely dismounted that it was not even noticed by the officials until they were summoned to a replay. The goal was taken off the board, and the teams would remain tied at two after three periods. In overtime, neither team could beat the opposition’s goaltender on five total shots in the five minutes of four-on-four play. One of those five included a golden opportunity on a breakaway by Kane, but he could not beat Bobrovsky between the goaltender’s leg pads.
Still tied after overtime, the stage was set for what surely would be a dramatic shootout between the old-time Cold War rivals.
Dramatic would be a drastically heavy understatement as it would turn out.
For those unfamiliar, a shootout normally consists of three rounds in a penalty shot scenario: one shooter versus the goalie of each side. If the teams are tied in goals after three rounds, the shootout moves into sudden death. In the NHL, a different player must shoot each time. However, in international competition the same player can shoot an infinite number of times after the first three rounds. The shooters for the USA: T.J. Oshie (St. Louis Blues, NHL), James Van Riemsdyk (Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL), and Joe Pavelski (San Jose Sharks, NHL). For Russia: Evgeni Malkin (Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL), Captain Pavel Datsyuk, and Kovalchuk.
Oshie would open the shootout’s first round by hesitating on Bobrovsky, then burying the puck past his pads through the “five hole” to give the United States the early advantage. Malkin’s attempt on Quick would result in a shot that went wide to the right side of the net. In the second round, Van Riemsdyk’s attempt against Bobrovsky was snared in the goalie’s glove. In the attempt to answer for Russia, Datsyuk could not beat Quick through the five hole. Joe Pavelski then had an opportunity to win the game for the USA opening the third round, but Bobrovsky was able to deny him with an excellent stop despite a variety of dekes by the San Jose Sharks forward. The attention turned to Russia’s Ilya Kovalchuk, who needed to get the puck by Quick to keep Russia’s hopes alive. In their history against one another in the same scenario back in the NHL, Kovalchuk was 1 for 1 in his only other shootout attempt versus Quick. Kovalchuk would make it 2 for 2, acting like he was going for a quick wrist shot but opting for the equivalent of a change-up in baseball, Quick never had a chance as Kovalchuk beat him to the glove side.
Tied after three rounds, everybody watching with a rooting interest began simultaneously holding their collective breath. This time, the Russian federation would opt to shoot first. They went to Kovalchuk first after the ridiculous shot he had executed seconds earlier. This time, though, Kovalchuk’s fakes would not work on the Connecticut born US netminder. Despite the embarrassment of riches at his disposal, American head coach Dan Bylsma decided to rest his team’s fate in the contest on Warroad, Minnesota’s T.J. Oshie. As mentioned earlier, Oshie had already made the Russian goaltender look foolish in the first round of the shootout.
With a chance to win it in the first round of sudden death Oshie would juke his way to opening up Bobrovsky’s high glove side, but the puck rode up the blade of his stick, and he wound up airmailing the attempt well above the crossbar. Russia countered by opening the fifth round with Datsyuk, this time he would get it past Quick. Oshie would come back onto the ice needing to score to keep the United States alive in the game. At a time when most people watching the game were at the edge of their seats, holding their breath, or too afraid to look, Oshie was never the least bit rattled. He once again buried the puck through Bobrovsky’s leg pads, keeping the United States afloat for another round.
Russia would send three-time 90+ point NHL scorer Kovalchuk back onto the rink to open the sixth round of the shootout. The former Atlanta Thrasher and New Jersey Devil proved he was the thorn in Quick’s side, slipping it past the former Conn Smythe trophy winner for the second time in three tries. The attention, the pressure, and the spotlight shifted back to the St. Louis Blues forward. By that point one had to believe Russian goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky felt helpless in the net as Oshie had beaten him every time, only failing to score when he fanned on a rolling puck. Still, the nerves of an entire nation rested squarely on Oshie’s shoulders. Up to the task once more, he got Bobrovsky leaning to the blocker side, then beat the netminder between his left leg pad and glove hand.
The world of hockey could not have asked for a better shootout to decide a game. Many have debated endlessly over whether or not any game should ever be determined by a one-on-one skills competition, let alone on the biggest stage it could possibly have to offer. By the end of this one many of the doubters were probably at least hesitant regarding their original position.
Russia continued its strategy to alternate two of its three most skilled players (Alexander Ovechkin being the other), trotting Datsyuk back onto the ice as the shootout began resembling a baseball game: now in it’s seventh round. This time it was Jonathan Quick showing his mettle. Despite a series of moves from the skilled Russian captain, Quick stonewalled him. Rather than being faced with a do-or-die scenario, T.J. Oshie had a chance to win it for the red, white, and blue. Perhaps knowing that he had the 2012-2013 NHL Vezina Trophy Winner in his grasp, Oshie tried something different from his previous four attempts in this shootout. As he moved in on Bobrovsky, he faked from his forehand to his backhand, getting Bobrovsky to commit in the process. Unfortunately for the USA he could not keep the puck on his stick as it rolled away from him to keep the home team alive. With Kovalchuk returning to the ice once more, Quick would have to come up with another stop on his new found nemesis. He came up to challenge the shooter taking away many of Kovalchuk’s options, and forcing the dynamic goal scorer to miss the net entirely.
Oshie came out once more for what NBC play-by-play announcer Mike Emerick called, “the bottom of the eighth inning,” looking for one last home run to shock the hometown crowd. By that point Oshie had already established himself as a household name back home, but he was a goal away from being the number one trend on all of twitter. He glided in seemingly effortlessly on Bobrovsky one last time, sniping the wristshot quickly past him. Oshie celebrated while his teammates jumped for joy on the bench, his second reaction to the game winner was a stick salute to his teammate, goaltender Jonathan Quick. The United States had defeated the Russian team in the most dramatic of victories, 3-2.
In their final tuneup game in the preliminary round, the Americans carried that momentum to cruise to a 5-1 victory the very next day against Slovenia. The effort was made that much easier thanks to a hat trick by Phil Kessel (Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL), who scored the first three goals of the game. All of the goals featured an assist from Joe Pavelski. The fourth US goal was potted by Ryan McDonagh (New York Rangers, NHL) only 1:12 after Kessel finished the hat trick. David Backes would make it 5-0 for the Americans early on in the third period, and the USA finished preliminary play with two victories, one in overtime, for a total of 8 points.
Three days later, a date with the Czech Republic stood between them and a trip to the semifinals. Most observers believed the rested Americans would handily defeat an aged Czech team playing for the fourth time in five days. They would do just that, riding the strength of three first period goals (by Van Riemsdyk, Backes and Dustin Brown) to control play in a 5-2 victory. It was a 3-1 score after the first, with the Czechs scoring on an own goal by US defenseman Ryan McDonagh when he attempted to clear a puck in front of the net, but instead hit the back of teammate Ryan Suter’s (Minnesota Wild, NHL) skate to deflect the puck by Jonathan Quick. The victory put the United States into a game with the winner of defending champions Canada, and their surprise opponents from Latvia.
Road to the Final Four: Canada
Entering the 2014 Sochi Winter Games many observers, casual and expert alike, believed that it would be a near impossible task to take down the ridiculously talented Canadian team. The defending gold medal winning country sports enough talent to field perhaps two Olympic caliber rosters. However, being the best on the NHL statistical leaderboards and on paper does not mean they would just be able to show up and steamroll the competition.
Their first game in preliminary action versus the Norwegian national team would certainly prove the previous statement to be an accurate one. After nearly being equaled on shots in the first (9 to Norway’s 8), Canada was held scoreless until 6:20 into the third when defenseman Shea Webber (Nashville Predators, NHL), got a point shot past Norwegian netminder Lars Haugen (Dinamo Minsk, KHL) with an extra attacker on the ice via assists from defenseman Duncan Keith (Chicago Blackhawks, NHL) and forward Patrice Bergeron (Boston Bruins, NHL). Up 1-0, they began taking control over the Norway squad featuring only one player deemed worthy of the NHL (Mats Zuccarello, New York Rangers). Canada registered 14 shots while only allowing two in the middle period of this one, getting another goal from Dallas Stars center Jamie Benn (with assists by Bergeron, and LA Kings defenseman Drew Doughty) with 4:41 remaining in the second. Norway would score only 22 seconds into the third, pulling to within a goal, but Doughty would put Canada back up by two only a minute and fifteen seconds later. Canada took their first game 3 to 1.
The second game of opening round action proved much less of a test for Canada as they blanked Austria 6-0. Doughty and Weber scored again, LA Kings forward Jeff Carter had a hat trick, Anaheim Ducks center Ryan Getzlaf had a shorthanded tally, and Canada outshot Austria 46 to 23.
Their third preliminary round contest was highlighted earlier in the article, a very tightly contested tilt with the Finnish team. As noted, Canada managed to pull it out on a Drew Doughty goal 2:36 into overtime for a 2-1 victory.
Canada may have overlooked their quarterfinal opponents in Latvia as they took the ice at the same time as the United States did with the Czech Republic. However, they were about to see what happened when underdog pride & heart was met with talent & expectations. Canada did heavily outplay the Latvians, fresh off their first Olympic win since the 2002 games in Salt Lake City. They put up a ridiculous 57 shots on goal in the contest, throwing everything they could at Tampa Bay prospect Kristers Gudlevskis.
Both teams scored in the first period. Canada struck first as Patrick Sharp (Chicago Blackhawks, NHL) registered his first goal of the tournament on an assist from New York Rangers center Rick Nash. Latvia responded only two minutes, four seconds later when Lauris Darzins recorded his second tally of the Olympics. Darzins was Latvia’s only multiple goal scorer over their four games, yet was the only player in the entire tournament with no affiliated club at any level. The game remained tied 1-1 through the first, and no scoring took place in the second either. Canada had outshot Latvia more than three to one through the second period. They put up 35 shots through forty minutes while Latvia only managed 11. Despite his team being unable to mount any sort of consistent scoring threat, Gudlevskis continued to stand on his head in hopes that his fellow countrymen would eventually find a way to push another puck by Canadian goalie Carey Price (Montreal Canadiens, NHL). It would not happen, though, as Canada finally broke through on their third power play attempt of the game. Defenseman Shea Webber supplied the dagger to the hopes of the Latvians, getting a slapshot from the point by Gudlevskis with only three seconds remaining on the man advantage. Only 6:54 remained for Latvia, who would only be able to put two more shots on goal up against the stout Canadian defense from that point forward. The 21-year old AHL goaltender Gudlevskis stopped an incredible 55 of 57 shots, but his team could only manage 16 as they fell in the quarterfinals.
Canada became the final team to punch its ticket into semifinal play, where a rematch of the 2010 gold medal game with their neighbors to the south will determine if they are to play for a chance to repeat as Olympic gold medalists.
SEMIFINAL ONE: Sweden vs. Finland, 7:00 AM ET, February 21st
The contest between the Swedish and Finnish national teams is a rematch of the 2006 Gold Medal game, won 3-2 by Sweden. It was the second Gold for Sweden in 19 trips to the Olympics with the other coming in 1994.
Five players from that team are on the 2014 team: Captain Henrik Zetterberg, forward Daniel Alfredsson, forward Daniel Sedin, defenseman Niklas Kronwall, and goaltender Henrik Lundqvist.
Five players from the 2006 for Finland are also contributing in 2014: six-time Olympian forward Teemu Selanne, forwards Olli & Jussi Jokinen, defenseman Sami Salo, and defenseman Kimmo Timonen.
Key injuries: Swedish Captain Henrik Zetterberg has missed the team’s past three games with a recurring herniated disk injury that has forced him to miss time at two different junctures during the 2013-2014 NHL season. Team doctors have ruled him out for the remainder of the Olympics, and fear he may miss the remainder of the NHL season as well.
Finnish forward Aleksander Barkov (Florida Panthers, NHL) sustained a knee injury during the team’s preliminary round match with Norway. Barkov averaged 16:40 of time on ice in the two games he played, tallying an assist and a +3 rating. He was ruled out for the remainder of the Olympics with the ailment, and is expected to miss a total of four-to-six weeks as a result of it.
Both of the aforementioned injuries are certainly not minor blows to their affiliated clubs, but neither has halted either squad’s progress in search of the Gold.
Sweden has won all four of its games to this point, registering 15 goals while allowing only five. Goaltender Henrik Lundqvist has stopped 92 of 97 shots against him, a .949 save percentage. He has registered two shutouts, the second and third of his Olympic career.
Finland has compiled a 3-0-1 record leading up to the semifinal match. They have found the back of the net 18 times, while only surrendering eight. Four of those eight goals against came in their first game, which they won 8-4. That was also the only game in which Finland allowed multiple goals in regulation. Tuukka Rask has started three of the four games, winning two. He has turned aside 78 of 85 shots against him for a .918 save percentage. Kari Lehtonen (Dallas Stars, NHL) started the team’s second game against Norway, stopping 20 of the 21 shots he faced in that contest (.952 save %).
Strengths:
For Finland, their biggest strength is undoubtedly their goaltending. While starter Tuukka Rask only has a .918 save percentage, remember that he allowed four goals on 20 shots in the first game alone. Since that he came he’s been remarkable: 62 saves on 65 shots against the powerhouse offenses of Canada and Russia. That equals out to a .954 save percentage. Rask is also battled tested on big stages, having helped carry the Boston Bruins to the sixth game of the Stanley Cup finals only eight months ago. Rask is currently leading all NHL goaltenders with five shutouts during the 2013-2014 campaign. He will surely be facing a barrage of difficult shots from the immensely talented team from Sweden.
Finland is also equipped with some heavy firepower from their forwards. Ten of their fourteen forwards have compiled at least one goal so far through four games. Four of those scorers have multiple goals (Selanne, Jarkko Immonen, Lauri Korpikoski, and Mikael Granlund) including three from Minnesota Wild winger Mikael Granlund. They have put up an impressive 32 shots on goal per game. Their best line combination has featured the Jokinen brothers, Olli and Jussi, teamed up with Granlund. The trio have combined for 41 of the team’s 128 shots on goal (32%) and five of its 18 goals. The combination of those three, as well as veteran leadership from 43 year-old Teemu Selanne are more strengths for Finland.
For Sweden, their biggest strength may be goaltending as well. Henrik Lundqvist already has a Gold medal, Vezina Trophy, and three Olympic shutouts to his credit. He is also a three-time NHL All-Star, fourth among active goalies with 48 career shutouts, and fifth among them in wins with 298. He has multiple seasons of 10+ shutouts. After struggling heavily through the first three months of the current NHL season, he’s been brilliant since the calendar turned to 2014: 14 starts, 10-3-1 record, 1.93 goals against average, and a .937 save percentage for the New York Rangers. Combine those numbers with his Olympic totals through four games and he’s downright unstoppable: 18 starts, 14-3-1, 1.77 goals against average, .938 save percentage. The bottom line for Finland: they will need to throw a ton of shots at Lundqvist in order to beat Sweden.
Of course, Sweden is also very impressive up front. Their coaching staff has leaned heavily on the combination of Nicklas Backstrom, Daniel Sedin and Loui Eriksson. While the trio has only registered two goals, they’ve combined for seven assists and registered 22 shots on goal. They are a combined +5 rating. Sedin & Eriksson are averaging just under 19 minutes of time on ice per game, while Backstrom averages just under 18. Another big time forward for Sweden is Alexander Steen of the St. Louis Blues. Steen has only managed to find the back of the net once, but he’s taken over four shots on goal per contest (17 total). He can get rolling at any time as he’s shown this NHL season with 28 goals in 46 games played. Beyond those four, future NHL Hall-of-fame forward Daniel Alfredsson cannot be overlooked. Though only averaging 14:04 of ice time per contest, Alfredsson has tallied four points (2 G, 2 A) through Sweden’s first four games. He’s played in a line combination almost exclusively with Patrik Berglund of the St. Louis Blues. Berglund also has two goals so far in these Olympics. Finally there is Colorado Avalanche winger Gabriel Landeskog. Landeskog has 48 points through 56 NHL games in the current season, but only one so far in Sochi. He is another weapon up front for Sweden.
It is not only the forwards that can do damage for Sweden. Defenseman Erik Karlsson has already amassed seven points (3 G, 4 A) in Sweden’s four games, averaging 21:07 minutes of ice time per contest. He has been paired primarily with Niklas Kronwall of Detroit. The two balance each other well, because Kronwall plays a physical defensive-minded style while Karlsson is almost exclusively offensive oriented. They have well rounded blue-liners who can stymie any opposition’s offense beyond that top pair. Johnny Oduya and Niklas Hjalmarsson, both of the Chicago Blackhawks, are two very polished defensemen. They have only combined for one point and eight shots on goal, but have a +2 rating through the first four games. Sweden’s defensive pairings go even further deep as Detroit’s Jonathan Ericsson is also logging healthy ice time at 16:11 per contest, and he could be paired up with Vancouver’s Alexander Edler for the game against Finland. Edler missed Sweden’s first two games as a result of a suspension from a knee-to-knee hit on Canada’s Eric Staal during last summer’s world championships. Since returning, he’s compiled two points in two games (1 G, 1 A) while logging 17:26 of ice time.
The bottom line for the Swedish team: they really do not have much of any apparent weakness. The one player who it is possible to exploit is Erik Karlsson, as he’s below average in defensive coverages, but he is also extremely dangerous on the offensive end as noted.
Weaknesses:
As mentioned above, Sweden may only prove to be weak in some aspects of their defensive coverages. Both Erik Karlsson and Alex Edler have excellent offensive skill sets, but as defensemen for their respective NHL squads are a combined -37 rating. That means that when they have been on the ice, their teams have given up 37 more goals than they have scored. It’s an alarming number, and something that has yet to show up so far in the 2014 Winter Games. The bigger ice surface of international competition benefits both of these players. They also have not been paired together by the Swedish coaching staff, probably as a case of knowing what they have to work with. While those two are -37 at the NHL level, they currently sit at +7 during the Olympics, perhaps making the point entirely moot. Still, Finland may be able to use their creativity and speed to catch the Swedish defense off guard.
Finland’s biggest weakness may also be one of Sweden’s biggest strengths: special teams. While the Fins have converted on 25% of their power play opportunities (3 for 12), they have also allowed 33% of opponent power plays to find the back of their net (3 out of 9). The problem for the Finnish penalty killing unit is a combination of a lack of size with their forwards, and a lack of speed with their defensemen. Two of their more experienced players on the blue line, Timmonen and Salo, are often called upon to kill penalties, yet they are both very advanced in age compared to some of their opponents. One thing to definitely pay attention to are the penalties in this game, because with such evenly matched teams you can expect scoring to happen when one is at a man advantage/disadvantage.
The Swedish power play is a very potent one. Six of their 15 scores have come via the man advantage. They have managed those six tallies on 17 opportunities, a ridiculously high conversion rate of 35.3%. They have also afforded opponents with 17 power play opportunities, and their penalty killing unit has successfully done its job on 15 of those attempts (88.2%). Clearly the Swedish special teams should be viewed as nothing but a weapon for them.
Prediction: Look for Sweden to control the tempo of this game throughout, and for Finland’s goaltending to keep them in the game. It will be a low scoring affair. Finland struggles on its penalty kill, but only commits half as many infractions as does Sweden. Look for power play tallies by Alex Steen and Erik Karlsson, 30+ saves by both goaltenders, and a low scoring victory for Sweden. They will find themselves awaiting the winner of the United States vs. Canada.
SEMIFINAL TWO: United States vs. Canada, 12 PM ET, February 21
As mentioned countless times in this space, as well as every other media outlet imaginable, this is a rematch of the thrilling 2010 Gold Medal game won 2-1 by Canada’s Sidney Crosby in overtime. Canada also won Gold at the 2002 games in Salt Lake City, making them winners in two of the previous three Olympics heading into Sochi.
13 players from the 2010 United States team are on the roster for this game: David Backes, Dustin Brown, Ryan Callahan, Patrick Kane, Ryan Kesler, Phil Kessel, Ryan Miller, Brooks Orpik, Zach Parise, Joe Pavelski, Jonathan Quick, Paul Stasny, and Ryan Suter.
11 players from the 2010 Canadian team remain on their roster in 2014: Patrice Bergeron, Sidney Crosby, Drew Doughty, Ryan Getzlaf, Duncan Keith, Roberto Luongo, Patrick Marleau, Rick Nash, Corey Perry, Jonathan Toews, and Shea Webber.
Key injuries: Canadian center John Tavares suffered a torn MCL and meniscus in their 2-1 victory over Latvia in the quarterfinals. Tavares will miss the rest of the NHL season with the New York Islanders as a result. Though he primarily played on Canada’s fourth line, averaging only 10:39 of ice time per game, Tavares is one of the most dynamic centers in all of the NHL. He will likely have another chance to play for Canada in the 2018 Olympics, should the NHL allow its players to participate in the event.
The United States team comes into the match against Canada with a fully healthy roster.
Both teams have won all four of their games heading into the semifinals, each have won three in regulation. Canada won in overtime against Finland 2-1 as mentioned earlier. The United States won in a shootout for the ages against Russia 3-2 last Saturday.
The Americans lead all teams in scoring with 20 goals in their four games. They have only allowed six goals to be scored against them, third fewest in the tournament. The Canadians have only scored 13 goals thus far, the fewest of the four remaining squads. Six of those 13 came in one game, a shutout victory in their second game of the tournament versus Austria.
Jonathan Quick has started in net for three of the four games played by the Americans. He has won all three, combining to stop 72 of 77 shots (.935 save percentage). 2010 Olympic Silver Medalist Ryan Miller started the team’s third game, a 5-1 victory over Slovenia. Miller turned aside 17 of the 18 shots he faced in that contest, a .944 save percentage.
Carey Price has been the starter for team Canada in three of its four contests thus far. He has only faced 51 shots in those three starts, turning away 48 of them for a .941 save percentage. 2010 Gold Medalist Roberto Luongo started in Canada’s second game versus Austria, turning aside all 23 shots he faced for his second career Olympic shutout.
Strengths:
Taking the easy way out here would be to simply say: both teams are extremely well rounded, deep both at forward and at the blue line.
While the above statements are true, it is easy to see that Canada is struggling to produce offensively based on the overall scoring numbers. In fact, seven of Canada’s 13 goals have been scored by two defensemen: Drew Doughty and Shea Webber. Throw in Jeff Carter’s hat trick from the game against Austria, and we are talking about a team seeing 77% of its goals being scored by three of its 25 players. Canadian captain Sidney Crosby leads the NHL with 78 points already this season, he’s only registered two assists. Teammate Ryan Getzlaf is second in the league with 67, he has three points (1 G, 2 A). John Tavares is third in the NHL with 66 points, he had zero for team Canada before his injury in its fourth game. Getzlaf’s teammate for the Anaheim Ducks Corey Perry sits tied for sixth in the league in points scored, yet he only has one assist through the first four games. Perhaps it is due to a lack of team chemistry, perhaps it is due to a sense of complacency being picked by so many to win, but it is no secret that the Canadians are struggling offensively.
Luckily for them, their strength on the blue line has had a chance to shine in these close games. The Canadian coaching staff has chosen to rely almost exclusively upon three pairs of defensemen, much like a regular NHL team would, despite having eight of them at their disposal. Canada’s defensemen are so good that 2012-2013 Norris Trophy winner P.K. Subban has only played in one game thus far. Meanwhile Vancouver’s Dan Hamhuis has dressed for the three that Subban has not, but he’s only averaging 6:22 of ice time in those games. Instead, Canada has relied on a heavy and lengthy pairing of Duncan Keith and Shea Webber. The two of them are averaging well over 21 minutes of time on ice per game, have combined for six points, and register a +7 rating combined. When those two have not been on the ice, the combination of Drew Doughty and Alex Pietrangelo (St. Louis Blues, NHL) have done their fair share of the lifting. Those two have combined for seven points (six by Doughty), log over 18 minutes a piece per game, and are a combined +6. The third pairing used by Canada to stifle opponents is Jay Bouwmeester (St. Louis Blues, NHL) and Marc Eduoard-Vlasic (San Jose Sharks, NHL). While they haven’t registered a single point, they combine to a +4 rating in roughly 16 minutes time on ice per game. When attempting to determine the strength of the Canadian defense, all one must do is look at the opposing shot totals. They are allowing under 19 shots per game to their opponents.
Meanwhile, the United States have been clicking very well with their offense. They’re scoring at a five goal per game pace, tallying at least that many in three of their four games to this point. Toronto Maple Leafs forward Phil Kessel leads all scorers in the 2014 Olympics with eight points (5 G, 3 A). A man not known for his big game performances before this tournament, Kessel has silenced his critics to the delight of USA hockey fans. He has been known for never seeing a shot he does not like: his 17 shots on goal lead the team by six. Of the 22 American players to have played in all four games, only defenseman Paul Martin of Pittsburgh has not registered a point. Besides Kessel they boast three other forwards with multiple goals: Backes with three, Brown with two, and Paul Stasny with two. They also have eight players that have registered at least three assists. The only dim spot in the offense has been the scoring output of their line combination with the most time on ice. Captain Zach Parise, center Ryan Kesler and winger Patrick Kane have only combined for two goals. However, they do have seven assists between them. It would be more than fair to say that offense is a strength for team USA.
Another strength for both sides are special teams. The American team has gone 3 for 11 on its chances with a man advantage, a 27.3% success rate. They have also managed to kill off 9 of 10 opponent power play opportunities. Canada has only been given seven power play chances, but have managed to cash in on two of those. They have also killed off 12 of 13 oppositional power plays, a 92.3% success rate. Do not be at all surprised if these two play a clean game, not wanting to put the other side’s potent attacks on the man advantage.
More strength! The United States certainly has plenty of it between the pipes. 2011-2012 Conn Smythe Trophy winner Jonathan Quick has already shown off his impressive skill set in the Sochi games.
Weaknesses:
This will be the shortest section of the article because of how good these two teams are. We can only see one aspect on each team that COULD expose itself as a weakness during this semifinal contest.
For the United States, it is the defensive pairing of Paul Martin and Brooks Orpik. The two Pittsburgh Penguins defensemen have been solid so far in this year’s tournament, combining for a +5 rating. They are not being counted on to shoulder a heavy burden either, Orpik only averages the sixth most ice time per game among American defenseman (Martin averages the third most), but their are some holes in their games that could be exposed. Both of them are a bit older for Olympic style hockey (Martin is 32, Orpik is 33), and both have them missed substantial time during the current NHL season with major injuries. The top defensive pairing of Ryan Suter and Ryan McDonagh have been very good for the United States, but the pairing of Orpik & Martin is one perceived weakness to look out for.
For the Canadians, it is actually goaltender Carey Price. While Price has been very good in these Olympics he has rarely been tested, only facing 17 shots per game on average in his three starts. This is certainly not Price’s fault as it’s been more due to a combination of excellent defensive play from the Canadian blue liners, and perhaps not much in the way of very stiff competition from their opponents to this point. In past NHL seasons, particularly in postseason play, Price has sometimes shown a tendency to come up small in big games. In 30 career postseason starts, Price has only a 9-17-0 record. His save percentage is a pedestrian .905 while his goals against average is an unimpressive 2.90. Still, the NHL postseason and Olympic Winter Games are two very different stages, and Price has been more than up to the task so far in Sochi. It is another perceived weakness, but one we think you ought to keep an eye on.
Prediction: Look for Canada to come out with a lot of energy early in this one. It is extremely unlikely that their Captain Sidney Crosby could possibly be held without a goal in Olympic play. Look for him to tally one, while his Pittsburgh teammate Chris Kunitz will also score for team Canada. Do not be surprised if Anaheim teammates Getzlaf & Perry get in on the scoring as well. These players are all far too good to be held back for as long as they have been already. However, do not count on the United States to allow more than three goals in this game. Expect Patrick Kane to score his first of the tournament for the US, while T.J. Oshie and David Backes could come up big once again. The key to the game may be Phil Kessel. If he can continue his scoring flurry, the United States stands a much better chance to take down Canada. We would not advise you to count on it. We will gladly applaud being incorrect on this prediction (much like the Super Bowl prediction), but expect Canada to defeat the United States by a 3-2 score in regulation.
If you stuck with us to this point in the post, we owe you a batch of homemade cookies.
Scott on Sports 